Best CS2 Cases to Open by Expected Value
44 cases
Every Counter-Strike 2 weapon case we can price honestly, ranked by how much of your opening cost you statistically get back. EV multiplies Valve’s published tier odds by wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Dopplers averaged across phases), then subtracts nothing — the cost column already shows the case plus the $2.49 key.
Every case returns less than it costs — that is the design, not bad luck. The ranking tells you which case burns the least per opening and what its chase drop is worth. Open a case to see its full tier-by-tier breakdown.
Top 44
Updated 5 d ago Case Opening cost EV vs cost EV Return
#1 
eSports 2013 Winter Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $10.99 · Return 66% $16.68 -34% $10.99 66% #2 
Sealed Dead Hand Terminal Top drop: Sport Gloves (Ultra Violent) · $1,257.81 EV $1.89 · Return 64% $2.97 -36% $1.89 64% #3 
Prisma Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $1,035.14 EV $2.37 · Return 62% $3.82 -38% $2.37 62% #4 
CS:GO Weapon Case 2 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $16.59 · Return 62% $26.83 -38% $16.59 62% #5 
Chroma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,528.56 EV $3.61 · Return 59% $6.15 -41% $3.61 59% #6 
eSports 2014 Summer Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $8.59 · Return 59% $14.69 -41% $8.59 59% #7 
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $3.70 · Return 58% $6.33 -42% $3.70 58% #8 
CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $9.32 · Return 56% $16.58 -44% $9.32 56% #9 
Gamma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,084.83 EV $3.02 · Return 56% $5.43 -44% $3.02 56% #10 
Gamma Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,084.83 EV $3.09 · Return 56% $5.55 -44% $3.09 56% #11 
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $4.34 · Return 55% $7.83 -45% $4.34 55% #12 
Chroma 3 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,528.56 EV $3.06 · Return 54% $5.73 -46% $3.06 54% #13 
Glove Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $5,289.75 EV $7.49 · Return 53% $14.09 -47% $7.49 53% #14 
Revolver Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $2.75 · Return 53% $5.19 -47% $2.75 53% #15 
Operation Wildfire Case Top drop: Bowie Knife (Fade) · $292.52 EV $3.05 · Return 53% $5.79 -47% $3.05 53% #16 
Chroma Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,528.56 EV $3.78 · Return 52% $7.22 -48% $3.78 52% #17 
Winter Offensive Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $6.44 · Return 52% $12.32 -48% $6.44 52% #18 
Operation Hydra Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $5,289.75 EV $16.25 · Return 50% $32.46 -50% $16.25 50% #19 
Shadow Case Top drop: Shadow Daggers (Fade) · $244.77 EV $2.10 · Return 50% $4.23 -50% $2.10 50% #20 
Falchion Case Top drop: Falchion Knife (Fade) · $289.17 EV $2.08 · Return 50% $4.19 -50% $2.08 50% #21 
Horizon Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $931.85 EV $1.97 · Return 49% $4.04 -51% $1.97 49% #22 
Prisma 2 Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $1,035.14 EV $1.84 · Return 49% $3.78 -51% $1.84 49% #23 
Shattered Web Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $592.00 EV $3.56 · Return 48% $7.38 -52% $3.56 48% #24 
Spectrum 2 Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,086.89 EV $2.59 · Return 48% $5.39 -52% $2.59 48% #25 
Spectrum Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,086.89 EV $2.93 · Return 48% $6.11 -52% $2.93 48% #26 
Snakebite Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $701.74 EV $1.38 · Return 47% $2.92 -53% $1.38 47% #27 
Operation Broken Fang Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $701.74 EV $3.92 · Return 46% $8.47 -54% $3.92 46% #28 
Operation Breakout Weapon Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Fade) · $2,408.45 EV $4.84 · Return 46% $10.47 -54% $4.84 46% #29 
Danger Zone Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $931.85 EV $1.71 · Return 46% $3.71 -54% $1.71 46% #30 
Huntsman Weapon Case Top drop: Huntsman Knife (Fade) · $392.07 EV $4.81 · Return 44% $11.02 -56% $4.81 44% #31 
Dreams & Nightmares Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,116.91 EV $1.56 · Return 42% $3.67 -58% $1.56 42% #32 
Gallery Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $188.93 EV $1.38 · Return 42% $3.27 -58% $1.38 42% #33 
Fever Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Doppler) · $791.44 EV $1.28 · Return 42% $3.06 -58% $1.28 42% #34 
CS20 Case Top drop: Classic Knife (Fade) · $344.51 EV $1.41 · Return 40% $3.50 -60% $1.41 40% #35 
Sealed Genesis Terminal Top drop: AK-47 (The Oligarch) · $67.72 EV $1.03 · Return 40% $2.57 -60% $1.03 40% #36 
Recoil Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $701.74 EV $1.07 · Return 38% $2.80 -62% $1.07 38% #37 
Operation Riptide Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,116.91 EV $4.33 · Return 38% $11.31 -62% $4.33 38% #38 
Revolution Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $797.31 EV $0.998 · Return 37% $2.72 -63% $0.998 37% #39 
CS:GO Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $37.99 · Return 35% $107.77 -65% $37.99 35% #40 
Clutch Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $797.31 EV $1.08 · Return 35% $3.07 -65% $1.08 35% #41 
eSports 2013 Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $17.10 · Return 35% $48.50 -65% $17.10 35% #42 
Operation Bravo Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,077.29 EV $19.44 · Return 32% $60.89 -68% $19.44 32% #43 
Fracture Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $592.00 EV $0.952 · Return 32% $2.98 -68% $0.952 32% #44 
Kilowatt Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $188.93 EV $0.815 · Return 31% $2.64 -69% $0.815 31% EV = Valve tier odds × wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases) · Opening cost = case median + $2.49 key · How the math works → · How we price →