Best CS2 Cases to Open by Expected Value
44 cases
Every Counter-Strike 2 weapon case we can price honestly, ranked by how much of your opening cost you statistically get back. EV multiplies Valve’s published tier odds by wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Dopplers averaged across phases), then subtracts nothing — the cost column already shows the case plus the $2.49 key.
Every case returns less than it costs — that is the design, not bad luck. The ranking tells you which case burns the least per opening and what its chase drop is worth. Open a case to see its full tier-by-tier breakdown.
Top 44
Updated 6 h ago Case Opening cost EV vs cost EV Return
#1 
Sealed Dead Hand Terminal Top drop: Sport Gloves (Ultra Violent) · $1,466.03 EV $2.36 · Return 67% $3.51 -33% $2.36 67% #2 
CS:GO Weapon Case 2 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $18.13 · Return 64% $28.19 -36% $18.13 64% #3 
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $4.13 · Return 64% $6.42 -36% $4.13 64% #4 
Operation Wildfire Case Top drop: Bowie Knife (Fade) · $272.80 EV $3.69 · Return 64% $5.80 -36% $3.69 64% #5 
Prisma Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $1,005.87 EV $2.38 · Return 62% $3.83 -38% $2.38 62% #6 
CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $9.20 · Return 60% $15.23 -40% $9.20 60% #7 
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $4.92 · Return 60% $8.17 -40% $4.92 60% #8 
Chroma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,598.42 EV $3.70 · Return 60% $6.22 -40% $3.70 60% #9 
eSports 2013 Winter Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $13.97 · Return 59% $23.85 -41% $13.97 59% #10 
eSports 2014 Summer Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $9.70 · Return 58% $16.69 -42% $9.70 58% #11 
Falchion Case Top drop: Falchion Knife (Fade) · $266.49 EV $2.41 · Return 58% $4.17 -42% $2.41 58% #12 
Winter Offensive Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $7.23 · Return 57% $12.62 -43% $7.23 57% #13 
Operation Hydra Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $5,835.10 EV $19.86 · Return 57% $34.91 -43% $19.86 57% #14 
Gamma Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,233.14 EV $3.18 · Return 57% $5.62 -43% $3.18 57% #15 
Gamma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,233.14 EV $3.05 · Return 56% $5.47 -44% $3.05 56% #16 
Chroma 3 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,598.42 EV $3.16 · Return 55% $5.75 -45% $3.16 55% #17 
Revolver Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $2.90 · Return 55% $5.27 -45% $2.90 55% #18 
Horizon Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $929.68 EV $2.26 · Return 55% $4.13 -45% $2.26 55% #19 
Chroma Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,598.42 EV $3.97 · Return 54% $7.31 -46% $3.97 54% #20 
Shadow Case Top drop: Shadow Daggers (Fade) · $289.14 EV $2.30 · Return 54% $4.27 -46% $2.30 54% #21 
Shattered Web Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $625.48 EV $4.23 · Return 52% $8.16 -48% $4.23 52% #22 
Snakebite Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $721.60 EV $1.53 · Return 51% $3.00 -49% $1.53 51% #23 
Glove Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $5,835.10 EV $8.96 · Return 51% $17.59 -49% $8.96 51% #24 
Spectrum Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,372.03 EV $3.12 · Return 51% $6.15 -49% $3.12 51% #25 
Prisma 2 Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $1,005.87 EV $1.90 · Return 50% $3.83 -50% $1.90 50% #26 
Operation Broken Fang Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $721.60 EV $4.50 · Return 49% $9.11 -51% $4.50 49% #27 
Spectrum 2 Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,372.03 EV $2.60 · Return 48% $5.36 -52% $2.60 48% #28 
Danger Zone Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $929.68 EV $1.82 · Return 48% $3.82 -52% $1.82 48% #29 
Huntsman Weapon Case Top drop: Huntsman Knife (Fade) · $379.20 EV $5.26 · Return 47% $11.10 -53% $5.26 47% #30 
Operation Breakout Weapon Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Fade) · $2,391.76 EV $4.84 · Return 47% $10.29 -53% $4.84 47% #31 
Gallery Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $216.43 EV $1.57 · Return 47% $3.36 -53% $1.57 47% #32 
CS20 Case Top drop: Classic Knife (Fade) · $355.70 EV $1.61 · Return 45% $3.60 -55% $1.61 45% #33 
Fever Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Doppler) · $942.06 EV $1.39 · Return 45% $3.10 -55% $1.39 45% #34 
Sealed Genesis Terminal Top drop: AK-47 (The Oligarch) · $79.88 EV $1.15 · Return 44% $2.60 -56% $1.15 44% #35 
Dreams & Nightmares Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,269.93 EV $1.61 · Return 43% $3.72 -57% $1.61 43% #36 
Recoil Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $721.60 EV $1.15 · Return 41% $2.82 -59% $1.15 41% #37 
Revolution Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $861.68 EV $1.08 · Return 39% $2.75 -61% $1.08 39% #38 
Operation Riptide Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,269.93 EV $4.99 · Return 39% $12.90 -61% $4.99 39% #39 
Clutch Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $861.68 EV $1.18 · Return 38% $3.10 -62% $1.18 38% #40 
eSports 2013 Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $19.24 · Return 35% $54.81 -65% $19.24 35% #41 
Operation Bravo Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $21.62 · Return 34% $63.55 -66% $21.62 34% #42 
CS:GO Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $2,091.02 EV $43.57 · Return 34% $128.29 -66% $43.57 34% #43 
Kilowatt Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $216.43 EV $0.901 · Return 34% $2.66 -66% $0.901 34% #44 
Fracture Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $625.48 EV $1.01 · Return 33% $3.02 -67% $1.01 33% EV = Valve tier odds × wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases) · Opening cost = case median + $2.49 key · How the math works → · How we price →