Best CS2 Cases to Open by Expected Value
44 cases
Every Counter-Strike 2 weapon case we can price honestly, ranked by how much of your opening cost you statistically get back. EV multiplies Valve’s published tier odds by wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Dopplers averaged across phases), then subtracts nothing — the cost column already shows the case plus the $2.49 key.
Every case returns less than it costs — that is the design, not bad luck. The ranking tells you which case burns the least per opening and what its chase drop is worth. Open a case to see its full tier-by-tier breakdown.
Top 44
Updated 7 h ago Case Opening cost EV vs cost EV Return
#1 
Sealed Dead Hand Terminal Top drop: Sport Gloves (Ultra Violent) · $1,172.02 EV $1.85 · Return 65% $2.82 -35% $1.85 65% #2 
eSports 2013 Winter Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $8.94 · Return 63% $14.08 -37% $8.94 63% #3 
CS:GO Weapon Case 2 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $12.81 · Return 58% $22.12 -42% $12.81 58% #4 
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $3.37 · Return 57% $5.93 -43% $3.37 57% #5 
Prisma Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $993.60 EV $2.06 · Return 57% $3.63 -43% $2.06 57% #6 
CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $8.45 · Return 56% $15.03 -44% $8.45 56% #7 
Gamma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,190.93 EV $2.94 · Return 56% $5.26 -44% $2.94 56% #8 
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $3.89 · Return 56% $6.96 -44% $3.89 56% #9 
Glove Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $4,954.59 EV $6.68 · Return 56% $11.99 -44% $6.68 56% #10 
Chroma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,650.56 EV $3.39 · Return 56% $6.10 -44% $3.39 56% #11 
Operation Wildfire Case Top drop: Bowie Knife (Crimson Web) · $781.10 EV $2.88 · Return 55% $5.23 -45% $2.88 55% #12 
Gamma Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,190.93 EV $2.89 · Return 54% $5.31 -46% $2.89 54% #13 
Operation Hydra Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $4,954.59 EV $14.67 · Return 53% $27.55 -47% $14.67 53% #14 
Shattered Web Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $564.84 EV $3.43 · Return 52% $6.54 -48% $3.43 52% #15 
eSports 2014 Summer Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $7.20 · Return 52% $13.87 -48% $7.20 52% #16 
Chroma 3 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,650.56 EV $2.93 · Return 51% $5.72 -49% $2.93 51% #17 
Revolver Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $2.61 · Return 50% $5.17 -50% $2.61 50% #18 
Chroma Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,650.56 EV $3.52 · Return 50% $7.02 -50% $3.52 50% #19 
Prisma 2 Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $993.60 EV $1.77 · Return 50% $3.56 -50% $1.77 50% #20 
Falchion Case Top drop: Falchion Knife (Fade) · $274.46 EV $1.93 · Return 49% $3.97 -51% $1.93 49% #21 
Winter Offensive Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $5.68 · Return 49% $11.70 -51% $5.68 49% #22 
Operation Breakout Weapon Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Fade) · $2,460.40 EV $4.60 · Return 48% $9.48 -52% $4.60 48% #23 
Spectrum Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,081.33 EV $2.78 · Return 48% $5.78 -52% $2.78 48% #24 
Horizon Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $886.64 EV $1.89 · Return 48% $3.95 -52% $1.89 48% #25 
Operation Broken Fang Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $666.74 EV $3.79 · Return 48% $7.94 -52% $3.79 48% #26 
Shadow Case Top drop: Shadow Daggers (Fade) · $205.75 EV $1.95 · Return 48% $4.09 -52% $1.95 48% #27 
Spectrum 2 Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $3,081.33 EV $2.46 · Return 47% $5.25 -53% $2.46 47% #28 
Snakebite Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $666.74 EV $1.30 · Return 46% $2.84 -54% $1.30 46% #29 
Danger Zone Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $886.64 EV $1.62 · Return 46% $3.56 -54% $1.62 46% #30 
Huntsman Weapon Case Top drop: Huntsman Knife (Fade) · $404.38 EV $4.47 · Return 43% $10.36 -57% $4.47 43% #31 
Dreams & Nightmares Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,129.82 EV $1.46 · Return 42% $3.47 -58% $1.46 42% #32 
Gallery Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $182.51 EV $1.26 · Return 41% $3.10 -59% $1.26 41% #33 
Fever Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Doppler) · $773.51 EV $1.23 · Return 40% $3.08 -60% $1.23 40% #34 
Operation Riptide Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $2,129.82 EV $4.10 · Return 40% $10.38 -60% $4.10 40% #35 
CS20 Case Top drop: Classic Knife (Fade) · $310.00 EV $1.28 · Return 39% $3.29 -61% $1.28 39% #36 
Sealed Genesis Terminal Top drop: AK-47 (The Oligarch) · $63.81 EV $0.951 · Return 37% $2.55 -63% $0.951 37% #37 
Recoil Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $666.74 EV $0.985 · Return 36% $2.72 -64% $0.985 36% #38 
CS:GO Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $37.16 · Return 36% $104.64 -64% $37.16 36% #39 
Clutch Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $735.97 EV $1.01 · Return 34% $2.94 -66% $1.01 34% #40 
Revolution Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $735.97 EV $0.911 · Return 34% $2.65 -66% $0.911 34% #41 
eSports 2013 Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $15.44 · Return 34% $45.15 -66% $15.44 34% #42 
Operation Bravo Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,944.90 EV $18.75 · Return 33% $56.40 -67% $18.75 33% #43 
Fracture Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $564.84 EV $0.907 · Return 31% $2.90 -69% $0.907 31% #44 
Kilowatt Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $182.51 EV $0.748 · Return 29% $2.60 -71% $0.748 29% EV = Valve tier odds × wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases) · Opening cost = case median + $2.49 key · How the math works → · How we price →