Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
A weapon case released 2014-11-5: 14 community finishes plus a rare special slot with 65 knives across 5 models. It has left the active drop pool and now drops only rarely, so supply is shrinking.
Item facts
What's inside & drop odds
79 items79 items: 14 community finishes plus 65 knives in the rare special slot. Odds are per opening, shared across the items in each tier.
Tile price: the current floor at the cheapest market; the second line is the range across wears. Each tile opens the item page with every wear and market.
Is it worth opening: the math
| Tier | Odds | Avg item value | Adds to EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Special (knife / gloves) avg over 60 of 65 priced | 0.26% | $340.37 | $0.885 |
| Covert | 0.64% | $95.23 | $0.609 |
| Classified | 3.20% | $10.42 | $0.333 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | $4.93 | $0.788 |
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | $1.35 | $1.08 |
Verdict: opening is entertainment, not value. You get back 57% of the opening cost on average, and the rare slot takes ≈ 385 openings to hit. If you want a specific skin, buying it outright is almost always cheaper.
EV = Valve's published tier odds × wear-weighted median asks across markets, 90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases · How the math works → · How we price →
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case prices across 24 markets
Selling this skin? See what you’d get →No markets match this filter.
Each price is the total you pay, buyer fees included. The dot shows how well the venue fits your region. How we price →
No markets match this filter.
The number on the right is your net payout after the venue’s seller fee. Where to sell: all venues compared → · How we calculate net payouts → · Scam protection →
Lowest ask · 91 snapshots since Apr 12, 2026 · dashed = a gap over a week
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How the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case drops and opens
Valve retired Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, first sold 2014-11-5, from the weekly rotation, leaving only the sharply reduced rare-pool drop, so what trades today is mostly circulating old supply — currently from $3.70 across 24 marketplaces. History says such cases gain value as the float of copies dries up; the drop-pool registry dates every change. Drop-pool registry →
Every opening costs a $2.49 store key on top of the case; keys stopped being tradable in 2019, so the store price is the only price. The math: $3.69 expected back against a $6.48 outlay, about 57% before selling fees. Chasing a single skin through openings loses to simply buying it — each tile above opens its price comparison.
From this page's data: 79 items priced live, the 27-day median case price moved -4.3%, Steam volume holds near 11 cases sold per day. All prices recompute with every data snapshot.
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case questions
What is inside the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
14 community finishes from Mil-Spec to Covert, topped by AK-47 (Wasteland Rebel) and P2000 (Fire Elemental), plus a rare special slot: 65 knife variants across 5 models. The full priced list is above on this page.
What are the knife odds?
0.26% per opening, about 1 per 385 openings on average. At $6.48 per opening the average path to the rare slot costs roughly $2,495.57.
How much is the key?
$2.49 in the in-game store. Keys cannot be bought on the market or traded: the price is the same for everyone.
Is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth opening?
The numbers say no: $3.69 expected return against $6.48 spent per opening (57%). If the goal is a skin rather than the thrill, direct purchase is cheaper.
Will the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case be discontinued?
It already rotated out of the active pool (rare pool as of our Apr 12, 2026 registry snapshot). It still drops rarely — cases never leave the game entirely. Drop-pool registry →
How do I get one without opening it?
Buying it is the practical route — from $3.70 across the markets in the table above. It no longer drops weekly.
Is opening cases legal in my country?
Loot-box rules differ by country: Belgium treats paid loot boxes as gambling and Valve disabled case opening there, while several other countries require odds disclosure or age gates. If opening is restricted where you live, buying items directly stays available. Responsible trading guide →